KAKO RAZMIŠLJA O INVESTICIJAMA NA BERZI NAJUSPJEŠNIJI ČOVJEK IZ OVE OBLASTI   

U vrijeme pisanja ovog blog posta, Dow Jones dostiže nove istorijske rekorde. Kamatne stope na štednju u bankama su skoro na minimumu. U mnogim zemljama su aktuelne i negativne kamatne stope, što znači da dobijate manje novca nakon perioda štednje.

Frka je oko trgovinskih pregovora između SAD i Kine. Pravi se velika „buka“ oko toga. Sankcije za Huawei a onda kontra sankcije za Apple!?

Prati se svaki korak, a onda tržišta reaguju na svaki potez.

Međutim, maestro finansijskih tržišta sve to gleda sa distance.

Ovaj blog post je inspirisan čovjekom, iz svijeta finansija, kojem se divim prvenstveno zbog načina na koji razmišlja a onda i zbog njegovih poslovnih rezultata. Čitao sam o njemu, gledao dosta intervjua, dokumentaraca i sadržaj ovog blog posta predstavlja moj doživljaj njegove poslovne filozofije.

On je prijatelj Bill Gates-a i ima 89 godina. U tekstu koji slijedi navešću šta me oduševljava kod najuspješnijeg investitora na finansijskim tržištima – Warren Buffet-a.

Kao što rekoh, njegov način razmišljanja se dosta razlikuje od ogromne većine investitora na finansijskim tržištima. Rekao bih da je on pravi predstavnik „stare škole“. Dodao bih, stare dobre škole! Čovjek sa strpljenjem, koji se ne „pali“ na prolazne trendove, koji ne prati efekat „stada“ na berzi, ne reaguje na medijske manipulacije, iznenadne i obećavajuće tehnološke novitete koji kratkotrajnu bljesnu a onda potpuno nestanu…

Jedna od ključnih stvari koju Buffet analizira prije investicije jeste kvalitet menadžmenta koji vodi određenu kompaniju. Poznanstvo sa njima je obavezno, pa ako zadovolje njegove kriterijume, onda slijedi dalja analiza, prije investicije!

Zatim analizira bilanse (mora se razumjeti računovodstvo) i traži kompaniju koja godinama stabilno posluje. Njega zanima kvalitet i dug rok a ne rizična zarada na brzaka! Jedna od njegovih rečenica je da uopšte ne razmišljate o kupovini akcija neke kompanije ako ne možete čekati bar 10 godina!

Po tome se razlikuje od bar polovine ostalih trejdera u finansijama koji se ubiše od manje zarade na dnevnom nivou (ali i provizija koje plaćaju njihovi klijenti)!

Naravno da niko od njih nema ni približnu zaradu, u zbiru, koju ima Buffet.

Prije nego investira, podrazumijeva se da razumije biznis i shvata način na koji određena kompanija posluje.

Traži kompanije koje:

  1. dugo traju;
  2. imaju sposobnost  zarađivanja i
  3. imaju predvidive biznis modele.

Ne pada mu na pamet da investira u nešto što dobro ne razumije! Strogo se drži svog kruga stručnosti.

Kad sve te filtere neka kompanija prođe, onda se traži da je i cijena akcija na berzi podcijenjena. Buffet želi bukvalno kupiti novčanicu od 1 dolara koja se prodaje za 40 centi. U tome je fora. Ta tehnika u dugom roku stvara bogataše!

Primjer za to su tri hartije iz njegovog portfelja:

  1. Ulaganje u akcije Coca-Cole od 1 milijarde sada vrijedi više od 8 milijardi;
  2. Akcije GEICO Insurance vrijedne tada 45 miliona dolara sada vrijede više od milijarde dolara;
  3. Ulaganje u akcije Washington Post-a u vrijednosti od 10,6 miliona dolara pretvorio je u udio koji trenutno vrijedi oko 1 milijardu dolara. Sami izračunajte razliku.

Zadnji dokumentarac koji sam gledao o njemu, prikazuje njegove skromne kancelarije, bez nepotrebnog luksuza i glamura. Osim toga, još jedan „detalj“ mi je ostao u glavi. Neposredno pred početak intervjua Buffet ustaje do frižidera i kao dobri domaćin donosi Coca-Colu svom gostu i sebi! Kakav mačak!

„Kad razmišljaš o kupovini na berzi, razmišljaj da kupuješ dio biznisa (koji razumiješ, u koji vjeruješ u dugom roku) a ne da kupuješ akcije te kompanije“ kaže genije iz Omahe!

SARADNICI WARREN BUFFET-a

Njegovi prvi saradnici su dugogodišnji prijatelji i takođe predstavnici „stare škole“ poput Charlie Munger, James Pardoe… Oni se ne lože na najnovije trendove koji se trenutno preporučuju.

Ta ekipa lista finansijske izvještaje, čita mnogobrojne analize i komentare o poslovanju kompanija u koje planiraju uložiti novac, razgovaraju sa menadžerima kompanija. „Stara škola“ od ovog posla ne pravi bauk već veoma jednostavno i strpljivo tome pristupa. Ali se drži starih dobrih principa. Tu odstupanja nema.

Kada je riječ o diverzifikaciji portfelja, i tu se razlikuje od opštih sugestija da je dobro imati veliki broj različitih udjela. Znate ono, ako „propadnete“ u jednom sektoru da vas izvuku ostali.

On se i tu malo razlikuje jer ne voli da ima udjele u mnogo različitih kompanija. Više voli da svede svoj portfelj na manji broj vrhunskih kompanija a onda da povećava svoj udio čekajući prave cijene. „Predivno je imati previše nečega što je dobro“ kaže maestro iz Omahe.

Upravo ta strategija koncentracije u dugom roku čini čuda!!!

Strpljenje i ne-diverzifikacija su, između ostalog, zaslužni za uspjeh Buffetove kompanije Berkshire Hathway.

Gdje se još razlikuje od većine?

On ne voli svakodnevne trgovine. Nije se na tome obogatio a nijesu ni brokeri od njega previše zaradili jer je zadnji put promijenio pozicije u:

  • American Expressu 1998,
  • Coca Coli 1994,
  • Gillette-u 1989 godine.

    Svakodnevne trgovce upoređuje s pčelama koje idu s cvijeta na cvijet. On smatra da ako si našao pravi cvijet da ga ne treba brzo napuštati.

Vlasnici akcija ne vole kad počne i potraje pad akcija na berzi. Tada većina obično panično bježi sa tržišta dok pojedini upravo tada vide priliku za kupovinu. Poznata vam je situacija da zbog nekog eksternog šoka tržište doživi pad svih akcija, nevezano da li se radi o zdravim ili lošim poslovnim modelima…

Kada je pad opšti, padaju i akcije vrhunskih kompanija! E tada se koristi momenat. Dok drugi bježe s tržišta, Buffet po svojim kriterijumima bira pravu investiciju.

Protivnik je tehničke analize i svakodnevnih praćenja berzanskih izvještaja. Kratak rok ga ne interesuje već kvalitet i vrijednost kompanije i njeni izgledi u dugom roku.

Sva buka i panika na Wall Streetu i drugima tržištima s pričama u vezi naftne krize, aktuelnih virusa, možda potencijalnog rata njega ne tangira koliko potencijal kompanije koju analizira.

Fokusira se na kvalitetno drvo a ne na šumu!

Kad već pričamo o šokovima na finansijskim tržištima 11. septembar 2001 godine je bio taj datum. Tri godine nakon toga tržišta su bila na svom maksimumu! Medijska buka jednostavno ne utiče na nekoga ko ima toliko profesionalnog i životnog iskustva.

Potpuno mu je jasno da budućnost ne možemo predvidjeti. Ali o tome možemo kvalitetno nagađati i praviti se pametni. Zato se i ne opterećuje time, već se koncentriše na kompanije koje posjeduju kvalitet i koje će „vjerovatno“ uspjeti bez obzira na trenutna kretanja cijena na berzi!

Postoji još jedan čovjek koga u ovoj priči treba pomenuti. Benjamin Graham – je Buffetova inspiracija i omiljeni profesor i mentor na Columbia Univerzitetu. Od njega je pokupio dosta „fora“ i on je izuzetno uticao na Buffeta. Možemo reći da je Buffet nastavio njegovu filozofiju o investiranju i da je usput dodao još neki svoj začin.

Warren Buffet se duže vremena rotira sa Bill Gates-om i vlasnikom Amazona Jeff Besos-om na jedno od prva dva-tri mjesta na listi najbogatijih ljudi svijeta. Ova trojka podsjeća na trojku u tenisu. Nove “nade” obećavaju, ali nikako da ih skinu sa trona…

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